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Introduction

I tried to write an objective overview of the next generation of consoles, I really did. But, it just wasn’t possible. I’ve seen too many actions, both good and bad, and from all parties, to write anything less than a highly opinionated article. So, without further ado, let me introduce the first winner in the next generation of consoles.

Nintendo.

Yeah, suck it down, I like Nintendo products. But even without my touch of Nintendo Fan Boy affecting my judgment, I just can’t see them going the way of Sega. Now, before we go further, let me clarify what I mean by “Nintendo will win.” I don’t think that Nintendo will sell the most units, or even make the most profit. Instead, I think that they are well-positioned for immediate and continued success with their XBox.

Why?

The N64 is a machine that can be seen in two distinct lights. One is that it was a very powerful and capable machine that, in the right hands, brought some of the best and most-imaginative titles ever made to our TVs. The limitations of the cartridge forced developers to find ways other than computer generated movies to convey story and emotion, and the 4 controller ports legitimized multiplayer games of all genres.

But the N64 was also a bitch to code for. First off, CARTRIDGES!?!?! What the FUCK? Yes, the load times are fantastic, and the built-in anti-pirating effect was a big plus where the bottom line was concerned, but limiting developers to 64 measly megabytes (at the high end!) is an amazingly stupid and restrictive limitation. Sure, in-game cinema (a la Zelda 64) is cool, but are not worth the price of crappy textures, limited features, and horrible music.

Secondly, think, hardware-wise, of the N64 as a mini PS2. Both have vector units, both use Rambus RAM, and both are not easy to get full power from. Evidence? Look at Nintendo’s and Rare’s titles in the last year, and compare them to the first and second batches; the evolution is tremendous.

So, with the N64 sucking so badly, why do I pick Nintendo as a Next-Gen Winner? Simple. They survived the N64. They showed that they could profit solely off of first and second-party titles (and Pokemon), and that they could successfully leverage their Gameboy hits into viable console titles.

So where do I see them? Well, they say that their developing agreement is friendlier to 3rd parties, but that really has yet to be seen. The hardware packed into the GameCube certainly does sound a lot friendlier, and that is sure to attract developers. But, in the end, it really doesn’t matter who signs on. Nintendo has enough cash, and, with the Game Boy Advance being released this summer, they will have enough publicity to thrive for another 5 years.

Sony and Microsoft

This situation is a little different. Unlike Nintendo, who is marketing a purely game-oriented machine, these two companies are competing head-to-head in the set-top-box market. They both want their machines to act as the central hub for all your entertainment needs. Can both of them co-exist?

I say no. If you had asked me, 6 months ago, who would win, I would have said Sony flat out. Of course, I also would have laughed at the thought of owning a Dreamcast, but a lot can change in 6 months.

Sony’s Problems

If anyone out there really wanted to know how to botch a release, Sony can show you. It’s one thing to over-hype your console to generate sales. It’s even fathomable to cut back on initial shipments because of production problems. But to ice all that incompetence off with one of the worst gaming libraries ever seen is inexcusable. Sure, Madden 2001 is great, but it’s available on PC, and NFL2k1 on DC meets it step for step. And Tekken Tag Tournament is neat, but it’s old, and fighters are a dime a dozen. All of the good games are on the horizon, and some of them are suffering from horrible rolling-release-dates.

So, Microsoft is Set, Right?

Wrong. Microsoft has nothing yet. They don’t have a concrete release date, they barely have finalized hardware, and they don’t have any announced release titles. Their machine, while powerful, has some issues. The biggest is cost. Rumors place the XBox price tag in the $500 range, which is hard to justify for a lot of people (especially as the economy worsens). So maybe we should analyze how Microsoft has performed in the past, eh?

What fun. I know right now that MS fans will e-mail me and tell me how many great games MS has made. True, MS has some hits, and I daresay it even has some classics. But MS hits aren’t console games. What do I mean? Well, console games place an emphasis on action and simplicity, and MS’s hits have been in Flight Sims and Real Time Strategy games. Flight sims just won’t work on consoles. RTS’s have been tried before, and they all failed. There are many reasons for this (low resolution, no mouse and keyboard, lack of internet) but don’t look for all of them to be solved any time soon.

So, really, MS is in uncharted territory. Yes, they have some sweet-looking games in development, and yes, they have cash out the wazoo, but I don’t really think that they can conquer Sony, unless…

How Sony Can Lose

I anticipate PS2 demand to sell out all PS2’s that Sony can make. Furthermore, I expect some good titles between now and Christmas 2001. But just how many units are made, and how many A-list titles come out, will determine whether or not Sony can continue its dominance. If 5-10 (non-sport, non-fighting) Grade A titles come out over this summer, Sony will be in a very secure position, and MS will have to settle for second place. However, if developers continue to have trouble with PS2 games, Sony could be in deep shit when the X-Box is released. If the PS2 is perceived as an expensive DVD player with crappy, outdated games, MS will have a very easy time taking control of the market they now covet.

Only time will tell, but I’m still rooting for Nintendo and Sega.

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