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There’s been much ado about the success behind World of Warcraft (WoW), and criticism towards Blizzard’s brainchild is quickly disputed by fans. An argument I’ve made in the past concerns WoW’s popularity, and how that factor is not indicative of the ingenuity and quality of the game, but merely on its marketing and polish. Interestingly, those who stick boldly to the popularity argument choose the opposite side in a similar argument: the Nintendo Wii is outselling both the Xbox 360 and the PS3, and yet it is widely recognized that the Wii, albeit somewhat innovative, is not the most technically advanced console on the market. In effect, WoW is the MMORPG equivalent of the Wii, using mass-appeal factors to draw in a record audience.

Oftentimes, a discussion of this nature evolves into one concerning market saturation, and the common argument is that WoW’s broad success (in number of subscribers) will be unmatched for some time to come. I’ve disputed this in the past, and it brings me some relief that Richard Garriott, of Ultima fame, agrees with me.

Garriott points out two interesting facts (which I will assume for now, are accurate):

1. The average MMORPG gamer only plays an MMORPG for around 7.5 months before moving on to something else.
2. Lineage II has around six million subscribers in Asia alone, with approximately one out of every ten Koreans as a subscriber.

The play length of 7.5 months is consistent with my own observations, and is telling as to the longevity of a game that doesn’t remain compelling beyond a character’s level cap. Considering that most MMORPG level caps can be reached in a matter of weeks, it is no surprise that players may stick around long enough to roll alternate characters, and ultimately walk away from a game when there’s only a grind for items left at end-game. As these players leave, new ones will undoubtedly have taken their place in the interim; 7.5 months is plenty of time to raise converts.

Considering that Lineage II has six million players in Asia, which is approximately what WoW has, one has to seriously consider the player-base in the western world, which is at most half that size. Until western game elements are accepted by Asian gamers, companies like Blizzard, whose focus is on the bottom line, will always favor elements common in eastern MMORPGs, which are more about grinding and novelties than an in-depth story and more compelling gameplay. While this will likely change in the future, it will require some time, since Asian gamers are used to, and enjoy, the opposite.

Ultimately, Garriott says what I’ve been saying all along: looking at the western market, WoW has only sold a couple million copies, which is consistent with any blockbuster game. Since WoW has been out for well over a year (and considering that expansions don’t have an effect on player growth), it’s not a stretch to assume that WoW’s western market numbers can be matched, if not beaten, by a next-gen MMORPG title.

Garriott also summarizes what I’ve said numerous times before:

I believe that MMOGs are still in their infancy … that WoW is still in the first generation of MMOG. I love the game and have nothing but compliments for it. But it is also extremely derivative of the other online games that have come before it. They all fall into a very similar mold in terms of the way your life unfolds inside these virtual worlds.

To deal with this problem, Garriott is investing some good thought into his recent project, Tabula Rasa, which should ship sometimes this year. As other developers do similar, there’s much to look forward to in the future of MMORPGs.

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