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This number, 10%, is not unrealistic, despite what others are claiming. In fact, this “analysis” by Apple Insider is consistent with claims by third-party iPhone software developers, who claim that they’ve had over 100,000 downloads of their respective software packages. This was back when Apple was purporting sales of just over 1,000,000 iPhones, which my higher-education tells me validates the 10% number.

Since the release of firmware 1.1.1, and the continues sales of iPhones (some of which ship with 1.1.1), I’d imagine that we’re looking at just under 10% of iPhones in the wild are unlocked. Supporting the refusal to adapt to 1.1.1 is the fact that on the day the new firmware was released, my AppTapp installer (for third-party iPhone applications) displayed more newly updated apps than any single day prior. In other words, the release of 1.1.1 did not register with the developers of native iPhone applications, at least morale-wise.

As I said via Twitter some days ago, Apple may very well have inadvertently forked their firmware sets with the banishment of native applications via 1.1.1. While one can re-enable third party apps under 1.1.1, the fix isn’t concrete enough, since the radio firmware can’t yet be downgraded, resulting in an iPod Touch Pro, and not a phone-capable iPhone.

There’s already historical precedent for this sort of thing on other devices. Look at Sony’s PSP, which was hacked to allow homebrew development. This scene took off much to Sony’s dismay, and while Sony kept releasing new features in firmware revisions in a move to convince people to adapt and ignore the cool-yet-unlicensed software apps freely available from the Internet, a few bold individuals managed to modify a previous firmware revision to give users both Sony’s “new” features, as well as the ability to run homebrew software and PSP game “backups”.

It would not surprise me in the least to see people stick with iPhone firmware 1.0.2. We may very well see modified versions of 1.0.2 coming out of the hacker scene in the future, which will give us things like the iTunes music store, and other Apple “bonuses” that are currently restricted to iPhones running 1.1.1.

Ten percent is a large number, and that many users of unlocked/hacked iPhones is nothing to laugh at. Anyone who’s played with an iPhone running native applications can’t help but feel sad for those who don’t have them, and this movement, if it doesn’t wake Steve Jobs up, will only foster more development from the homebrew scene, whether Apple likes it or not.

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