mendax.org

A little over a year ago, I commented on the success of World of Warcraft (WoW), and predicted that despite WoW’s financial success, games like EVE would build a comparative player base as early as the end of 2008. Obviously, I didn’t predict the problems associated with EVE since then, the problems associated with the financial backers of other MMORPGs, and the delays of Warhammer Online. Nonetheless, I stand by my position that we’re soon to see a population shift in the WoW player base, ripples of which have already begun to be noticed.

Over the past couple days, numerous folks have noted that WoW’s player base has reached 10 million, but few recognize that this number is very misleading. That’s because, as Tobold points out, that 10 million number includes a mere two million European subscribers, and a mere 2.5 million in North America. While these numbers are not insignificant in the least, they amount to less than half of the WoW population in Asia.

What makes the 10 million figure shady is the fact that it is a rough estimate, since Asian WoW gamers are not subscribers in the typical sense. That is to say, while western WoW gamers pay monthly fees to keep an account active, Asian gamers pay six cents per hour to play WoW. This makes gauging who is playing WoW in Asia not as straightforward as adding up active WoW accounts in the western world, since Asian WoW accounts are “inactive” when not being used, unlike their western counterparts.

Squabbling about the population aside, the profits from the Asian market is also in contention in respect to the figures regularly thrown about by western gamers, who purport that revenue, per gamer, is relatively equal across the board. In fact, following Tobold’s numbers, we’re really looking at the western market bringing in approximately 82% of Blizzard’s earnings per year. That’s notable considering that the western market should be bringing in just under half of Blizzard’s overall revenue, but in Asia, WoW’s profits are reduced by The9’s take, who runs WoW outside the western market.

This may not take anything away from WoW as a successful venture, particularly since we’ve seen many western gamers re-subscribe to WoW in 2007. However, if we’re amazed at WoW’s population from a financial perspective, we ought to consider the Asian market as holding a subscription population of just over one million gamers. In other words, the 10 million gamers quoted in recent days really equates to roughly 5.2 million subscribing gamers per western subscription numbers. That’s much less impressive than a double-digit number followed by the word “million”, and undoubtedly why Vivendi isn’t being straightforward to those not critical of the numbers themselves.

It’s a technicality, maybe, but one worth noting given other games on the rise. With 2008 as the year Warhamer meets the Lich King, it will be interesting to see whether WoW’s western population rebound manages to stick after all.

Popularity: 9% [?]