Since 2007′s release of the iPhone, Nintendo has adamantly opposed the device in favor of its own mobile consoles, much as they’ve done with every competitor’s hardware in the past. And Nintendo has a legacy to stand on, with the NES and SNES and even the N64. But things kind of break down after that, as competitors moved to optical media and basically left Nintendo in the dust. With the Gamecube, Nintendo attempted to get back in the game, but it wasn’t until the Wii that they were finally back in the good graces of the gaming populace. But even that momentary lack of judgement on our part has faded, as Nintendo’s ability to capitalize on the Wii’s innovations leave us with a few nice gimmicks, but ultimately little staying power.

The argument for Nintendo has been two-fold:

1. Nintendo will use the momentum of the Wii to finally offer competitive hardware in their next console.
2. Nintendo still has the mobile gaming market locked down.

Early reports of the Wii successor leave little to drool over, and the mobile market has slowly been pushed into iPhone territory, even though Nintendo ironically called it a novelty. It’s one thing for Nintendo to have dismissed the iPhone in 2007, but year after year is no longer excusable, especially when their countermeasures are a poorly performing 3D Gameboy. Nintendo’s now no longer leading much of anything, other than a steady march to the grave, much as SEGA did when they fell over thanks to the Dreamcast flopping.

There are investor calls for Nintendo to develop for iOS, but we’re still seeing push-back. It’s the same stubborn push-back that Nintendo of America has been cooing for the last couple years, and now it’s coming straight from Japan. “No, we want our software to run on our hardware.” Nintendo must be quoting a long-lost SEGA exec. The problem is that Nintendo’s hardware is, in a nutshell, crap.

Nintendo does one thing well: it makes great games. Old ports would be wonderfully on the iPhone, let alone new games using Nintendo IP. It’s a no-brainer to bring these titles over, and if Nintendo really wanted to brand some hardware to go along with it, we’d gladly support an iPhone sleeve with hardware bluetooth controls to go along with it.¹

If Nintendo doesn’t wake up soon, they’ll be forced to go this route anyway. Why not capitalize on the transition early instead of blowing more capital on failed hardware projects?

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Over the past couple days, we’ve seen considerable speculation about Apple’s involvement in television manufacturing; some wish to believe that Apple will delve into the TV production business, while others are critical in this regard. Others still are taking this opportunity to point out that doubting Apple’s entry in a given market has a poor track record, what with Apple having releasing the iPod, iPhone, iPod Touch, and Apple TV not long after pundits proclaimed these endeavors too risky, or too unlike Apple.

What’s certain, at least, is that Apple doubled down on their “hobby,” the Apple TV, when they released an iOS-based version costing just under a hundred bucks. The device is plug-and-play, easy-to-use, and is already offering alluring new features thanks to fancy licensing deals with Netflix, Major League Baseball, the NBA, et al. Indeed, the Apple TV is being positioned as an alternative to cable television, offering a consistent experience across markets that do not share the same cable provider. More importantly, the a la carte television and movie programming has gotten substantially better over time (addressing a chief complaint we’ve had with the Apple TV for years).

So Apple TV’s getting better, and that means Apple has an excellent weapon they can use to continue infiltrating an otherwise chaotic industry, offering a clean, consistent experience that potentially rivals the experience cable operators offer. Lessien believes that Apple can leverage apps, iAds, and subscriptions to even further promote the Apple TV, where apps pay homage to the living room gamer.

Apps, in particular games, give Apple an opportunity to extend their hugely successful mobile development platform into the living room. Low-priced apps, immediately downloadable, connected via GameCenter, controllable with iOS handheld devices just make sense. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft should be nervous.

There’s still a question as to how apps will work on the Apple TV, because to date, third-party Apple TV apps have been part of official iOS updates, not voluntary installs from an Apple TV AppStore. And then, of course, are the issues with transforming the Apple TV into a console replacement.

What of the controller?

The Apple TV comes with a lone remote. It’s a nice, simplistic remote, and in no way capable of working as a good console controller. The notion of using iOS devices as controllers is a worthy one, with such functionality easily worked into Apple’s Remote app. But whether it can technically be done or not is hardly the issue. Rather, if Apple planned to situate the Apple TV as a console replacement, it wouldn’t drastically increase the adopter fee by requiring a controller purchase several times more than the cost of the Apple TV itself. While many people already have iOS devices they can use for this purpose, Apple won’t make that a requirement any more than they made having an iPhone a prerequisite for iPad cellular data service¹.

The alternative to buying up older, second-hand iPhones and iPod Touches is simply buying a new iController that only runs the Apple Remote app, or perhaps runs a specific iController app that allows developers to create skin-able controller layouts for various games. The controller wouldn’t need an A5 processor, much storage, or RAM, and could rely purely on bluetooth for connectivity. With a gyroscope for added functionality, this iController could probably come in at a reasonable price-point, so families could pick up an Apple TV, two iControllers, and a multi-iController charging dock for under 200 bucks.

Such an iController would clearly be wireless, and would have a sufficient battery life for prolonged gaming sessions. But, without tactile feedback, and being limited to virtual buttons on the device face, there’s an obvious question of how capable the device would be compared to the multi-button monstrosities that modern gaming controllers have become. That’s not to say that a simpler, more polished interface isn’t an attractive proposal, but this could be considered a major flaw when compared to consoles whose controllers offer a button for every conceivable action in a given game; Apple TV games may inherently need to be simpler.

The only other option is let the Apple TV interface with bluetooth-enabled gaming controllers of a more conventional form, but this then becomes a contrary force to the multitouch philosophy that Apple has pushed for iOS. In order for Apple to remain consistent in this regard, we see it challenging devices like the Wii, but not button-heavy consoles like the XBox 360 and Playstation 3. Ultimately, if the Apple TV is to compete in the console wars, it needs to find a way to offer the same titles that other consoles do, and that means offering a controller scheme that’s not weaker in comparison.

What of the storage?

The Apple TV doesn’t have a lot of storage. In fact, it’s designed to stream content, not download it. So when we talk of games, anything substantial is no longer a possibility. Yes, Apple could allow the attachment of an external hard-drive, but now we’re again pumping up the cost of the device and making it less accessible. If Apple decided to increase the Apple TV’s storage, we could get away with simpler, casual games, but to truly compete with the big boys, we’d see games many gigs in size. That’s not to say that Apple couldn’t position the Apple TV as a casual-friendly console and compete exclusively with the Wii in this regard, but why limit market penetration to such a niche role?

The only other option is to stream video, and here, Apple may have a sound strategy. That is to say, Apple has already proven it can get content owners on board with its platform, as seen with record labels, movie studios, and TV broadcasters. So, if Apple decided to take on OnLive, and use the Apple TV to stream gaming video feeds, then storage isn’t an issue. However, this seems contrary to the AppStore ecosystem Apple has established to date, and makes rolling out a nation-wide, consistent experience difficult. That’s not to say such a move isn’t plausible, merely unlikely.

What of established iOS gaming?

With no clear solution to the problems of offering low-cost controllers and storage for the Apple TV, there’s nothing Microsoft and Sony need to worry about just yet². Apple would likely do a much better job than OnLive for getting a streaming library of games available to a wide audience, but the technology here is still too young for widespread adoption. Apple is better off focusing on how they can situate the Apple TV as an every-man device, and look to entering the set-top console fray at a later date.

Where traditional gaming companies need to watch out is Apple’s continued domination of the mobile space. Technologies like AirPlay, or even video-out adapters, may well serve gamers to stream iPhone and iPad gaming to the big-screen, and this is where we expect to see additional innovation. Why tack on additional costs to the Apple TV by offering new controllers, or muse about potential storage solutions, when we already have capable storage on existing iOS devices?

The Apple TV doesn’t need gaming apps, it simply needs to present the apps already on our iOS devices to the big-screen. Everyone thinks the Apple TV could be another platform for Apple to push, but its true strength is in acting as a bridge between our existing Apple devices and the television. Just as it already streams music, photos, and video from our devices, the Apple TV could be leveraged to present a gaming experience served up from these same devices. The issue then is not adding controllers and storage to the Apple TV, but adding an Apple TV to our iPhones, iPads, and Macs.

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World of Goo is an impressive indie title, which appeared on the iPad not long ago, though it’s been available on other platforms for quite some time now. Developer 2D Boy comments on World of Goo’s iPad success:

In the first month of sales on the iPad App Store, World of Goo sold 125K copies (thanks to being prominently featured by Apple). In comparison, World of Goo’s best 31 day period on WiiWare was 68K copies (thanks to a mass mailing by Nintendo), and on Steam it was 97K copies (thanks to two promotions at discounted prices). So far, the iPad version is by far the fastest selling version of the game, both in terms of number of units sold and in revenue generated.

John Gruber correctly points out that, “This is what makes iOS different than Android.” But more importantly, this is why companies like Nintendo should be fearing Apple right now, instead of ignoring Apple’s success in the gaming sphere. Even if you dismiss iOS as a platform that “hardcore” games can be greatly successful on (which we’d argue), you can’t deny that volume sales of low-cost games are breathing new life into the indy game scene, and forcing larger publishers to rethink how they market future titles.

One has to wonder what Square’s thinking is when publishing a $15 title on the AppStore, when the top grossing games are sold for significantly less. There’s this odd mental block that some traditional developers just can’t seem to get over, in which they believe they are devaluing their work by selling it for cheap, even if the total profit in the end would be greater. We liken this in some ways to the print industry, who is still failing to adopt to today’s new media en masse.

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That iOS games are threatening the traditional mobile gaming market is no longer a surprise. Today, TiPb declared that iPhone games may very well be the platform’s “killer app.” And maybe there’s some truth to this, but let’s be honest: iOS games won’t stand ground with console giants for a couple simple reasons.

The hardware: it’s fragmented.

As much as we like to dismiss the Android platform realized (versus the platform in theory) because of how fragmented the operating system is, all mobile devices in this market are inherently fragmented on the hardware side. That’s because the big push is to drop a new, upgraded model into consumer’s hands every year, and that doesn’t work well for mobile gaming devices.

Consider that Nintendo’s Game Boy was on the market for 10 years before the Game Boy Color was released. It would be another three years before the Game Boy Advance, and three more before the Nintendo DS. When the Nintendo 3DS hits shelves, the DS will have been around for six years.

The other major mobile offering, Sony’s PSP, was released in 2004, and the PSP2 isn’t scheduled for release until Q4 2011 at the earliest. So despite minor hardware improvements, the platform itself will have been around for seven years.

Now look at iOS devices. Come next summer, we’ll be on the fifth-generation iPhone, with each year seeing speed improvements. It’s one thing for Apple to stop supporting the 2G iPhone three years after its release, but we’ve also seen Apple drop iOS features in the iPhone 3G a mere two years after its release. There are even games in the AppStore that recommend an iPhone 4 for maximizing one’s gaming experience.

In this respect, Apple’s iOS devices are more like PCs in the gaming front, with newer games making use of better and newer hardware. The console market, in the meantime, is all about maximizing the capabilities of older hardware, such that newer hardware could be pushed off for years to come. The mobile space, as much as we want to compare it to consoles, is really only a console in terms of usability, not hardware stability over time.

Granted, things may shift just as they have for the PC market, in which hardware growth has slowed tremendously. If Apple is really making more money long-term on the AppStore and iTunes than they are on hardware improvements, then they could afford not to refresh their hardware every year. But that means Android phones, and devices from other competitors, would similarly need to slow down their hardware rat-race.

The storage: it’s lacking.

Still related to hardware, iOS device storage isn’t great. For most apps, or even multimedia in general, the current storage offerings are sufficient. But when the typical FPS comes in at several GB, iOS users will be expected to have 4+ GB of storage space per blockbuster title, and that means space quickly begins to come at a premium unless users decide to only keep one or two games on their devices at a time.

That’s why games like the revered Infinity Blade and Rage 3D are on rails. Not giving players the ability to roam around freely means developers can put less “stuff” in each title, and that means less textures, levels, animations, et al. And sadly, that sucks, because it means that while the hardware can otherwise support pretty cutting edge graphics, the lack of storage is keeping the mobile gaming market from pushing ahead. If storage weren’t an issue, then we daresay that iOS gaming could challenge any current-gen console, even if the graphics aren’t quite up to snuff (see: Wii).

One interesting outcome of this limitation is that iOS may become the de facto standard for rail-based gaming. Perhaps for non-technical reasons, console-based RPGs became a genre very different from PC RPGs, and a similar genre-generating phenomenon may be forming around iOS right now.

The control scheme: it’s… different.

Touch-based gaming is great for a variety of titles, but it’s not always ideal compared to the haptic feedback one gets from a physical interface. While a degree of control-scheme complexity is possible with iOS, one has to wonder where the limits are. An MMO like World of Warcraft (WoW), for example, would be nigh impossible to emulate on the iPhone control-wise. And that means there will be major concessions in terms of genres of games that iOS will sport. Yes, there may still be hardcore games on iOS, but the platform is clearly better at fostering more casual games with less input requirements.

What can be done?

One of the simplest things developers can do is not push cutting edge graphics, so as not to limit their games to customers who have devices more than a year or two old. Look at WoW, a game released in 2004 that, even then, didn’t push the limits of cutting edge hardware, which can arguably be considered a major boon to its success. (Blizzard has done similar with its previous games, like Diablo 2.) This is in stark contrast to MMOs like Everquest 2 who were more graphics-intensive, thereby not selling as many titles to customers with older hardware.

Games like Minecraft are further examples of unique, expansive titles working well despite not having great graphics. (Intentionally retro stylings are hot right now, bdesides.) And really, while eye-candy is nice to impress, an Infinity Blade-like game with free-roaming controls is arguably more attractive with graphics not as sharp, than the game in its current iteration, which is almost more a proof-of-concept than anything else.

Yes, we know that recent iOS devices have the hardware capable to make audiences gawk at the graphics potential of iOS games, but maybe that’s not where developers should be focusing their efforts for now. Whether rail-based games are fun is not the issue: let’s not pigeon-hole games on iOS to such rigid confinements, even if such rigid confinements make for better eye candy.

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It’s hard to believe that we’re nearing the end of the life cycle for the 7th generation of video game consoles. With speculation growing about what the 8th console generation will bring, Maxator threw his thoughts into the mix.

This generation was extended by the horrific economy and the late addition of motion sensing hardware by Microsoft/Sony and improvement of the Wiimotes with the Motion Plus dongle. That said, the Wii, PS3, and Xbox 360 have all exceeded the previous standard of four or so years between console generations…

It does seem like the current console generation has lasted awhile, but per Wikipedia, that’s not entirely true. It turns out that gauging generation length isn’t straightforward.

One way to determine the duration of a generation is to look at the length of sales for a given technology (e.g. 8-bit). The problem here is that sales length doesn’t account for technology availability causing generational overlap. For example, Playstation sales continued even after the Playstation 2 was launched, and new titles still continued to appear on the Playstation. Disregarding availability of newer technology means that the duration of older generations appear longer. (This would mean that the 3rd console generation lasted a solid 12 years.)

A second method for determining generation length is to consider a generation over once newer technology is available for sale. In other words, rather than factoring in the Playstation’s full sale’s life, we can consider it dead as soon as newer technology (e.g. the Playstation 2) became available. Under this method, the 4th generation has lasted the longest, with a record nine years.

Still, this means the current console generation has already lasted six years, and puts it in a position to last another year or two depending on how quickly the Big Three can bring a new console to market.

Nintendo, the old stand-by.

Compared to its competitors, Nintendo made waves with the Wii by introducing comparatively weak hardware, but at a cheaper price point and with an innovative control system. Maxator believes the “Wii HD” will be revealed at E3 in June.

I expect more of an iterative approach, then an all out new console, similar to Nintendo’s market strategy with the DS. I see a vastly improved processor with the same architecture allowing backwards compatibility with older Wii games. HDMI output for HD resolution is a no brainer and I don’t see a change in the controller…

Backwards compatibility is a must for the Wii, but a small, iterative approach won’t do. Considering that most Wii gamers are casual and/or younger, buyers will be more likely to ask what the huge differences are to justify a hardware swap-out. Merely adding a small speed bump and 1080p resolution isn’t enough, and we wouldn’t gamble against Nintendo finally jumping back into the competitive fray and offering a true graphics-monster. Hardware isn’t taking huge leaps like it did several years ago, which means incorporating cutting-edge graphics into a next-gen console isn’t as costly as it once was.

Of course, Wiimotes will likely stick around, and they may see small, iterative improvements. Nintendo will either continue playing up their ground-breaking motion controllers and keep them primary to the experience (unlike add-ons like Move and Kinect), else reveal an even more innovative control scheme (which is unlikely).

Lastly, for licensing and cost reasons alone, DVD is much more likely than BluRay… Look for a $250-300 price tag.

We’re rather inclined to suggest that Nintendo might forego optical media entirely and just push on with digital distribution. The Wii has been a successful platform for this already, and the technology is no longer proof-of-concept, with XBox Arcade having solidified the concept in gamer’s minds. If a new Nintendo console doesn’t compete graphically with other 8th-gen consoles, then digital distribution is even more likely, since it’s graphics that primarily increase file size. Either way, Nintendo will likely try to come in at the same price-point the Wii did, managing to beat the competition by at least $50 at the register.

Sony, the other Japanese Empire.

The biggest problem Sony had is fragmented, inconsistent hardware. Early PS3s sported on-chip backwards compatibility and a slew of USB ports, while later versions had software-based backwards compatibility that was later phased out. Unlike other consoles, the PS3 has lost more features than it’s gained, and that phenomenon has put many would-be owners off.

Given their entirely unimaginative and conservative hardware philosophy, I see a faster processor, same “gnome hands only” blocky controller, and of course included BluRay and hard drives. Boring but powerful and probably at a significantly lower price point than the PS3 started at, likely $350-400.

Sony has indeed played it safe, focusing its energies on what’s worked in the past, and the next-gen Sony console likely won’t be any different. Cutting edge hardware, a similar controller scheme, and a high price tag are to be expected, being traditional Sony fare. Even Nintendo and Sega played more loosey-goosey with hardware reveals in the past, whereas Sony is sticking to an old formula that may not play out well in the long-run. We’ve argued in the past that Sony’s largest benefactor is its reputation, but with poor moves like removing features over time, that reputation isn’t as strong as it used to be. If Sony doesn’t do more than react to its competitors (e.g. Move), then its 8th generation console will be like the Nintendo 64.

Microsoft, the Evil One.

Microsoft has been reactive to its competition as well, but they’ve taken better notes than Sony. While everyone expected a Wiimote copy-cat accessory, Microsoft responded with Kinect, and they’ve refined their UI and online offerings well. (The 360 UI still sucks, but it’s gotten better.) The big question will be how well Kinect does, and whether a more powerful Kinect accessory will be standard-fare in Microsoft’s next-gen entry.

I still see the “Xbox Next” being drive-free with an optional BluRay drive, ala their approach to the failed HD DVD.

It’s doubtful that Microsoft would suddenly jump on the BluRay bandwagon; they’ve actually signed onto a multi-company agreement not to adopt BluRay, along with such faux allies as Apple. Few companies are hedging their bets on BluRay anymore, and it’s arguably the last optical media format anyway. Just as the Wii has proven to have a good online marketplace, XBox Arcade has proven itself quite successful, offering many indy and older titles. Chances are, the next-gen Microsoft console will keep Arcade alive, and offer bigger, more spectacular games.

Of course, by offering digital downloads for blockbuster titles, Microsoft’s next console will absolutely need a larger hard drive, and for this they may take Apple’s cue and consider going with more reliable SSDs. The only obstacle here is cost, but with a Microsoft 8th generation console release in 2012, that may not be a huge issue, especially if they can skirt optical media and take a larger cut of indy sales.

Apple, the unlikely player.

It shouldn’t be a huge surprise that iOS has become a huge platform for mobile gaming, and with iOS now entering the living room thanks to the new Apple TV, it’s not a huge stretch to assume that Apple may use this as a springboard for home video gaming. We agree with Maxator, however, that full-on support of this isn’t going to happen anytime soon.

Don’t expect Apple to join the console wars anytime soon. Jobs has never made an effort to support gaming and with the entry costs of the console market being so high, I can’t see him hurting his stock price on a longterm risky investment. Plus, they are already happily making 20% on every repackaged Atari game on the iPad/Phone.

While Jobs has spoken to Apple gaming in the past, each Apple gaming headline has stood alone, with no real followup from Apple. With one failed console already on their books, Apple’s only now getting real gaming press because of how successful iOS has become. Apple’s 30% cut on all iOS apps is definitely helping the company out, and the large number of iOS gamers is notable by Apple using games in first-party advertising. But, most huge iOS gaming titles are casual games, and while deeper games on iOS do exist, they’re only now starting to really take off (e.g. id’s Rage).

Any Apple entry into the console wars will be natural, built on developer desire rather than Apple outright declaring a gaming console. Whereas most console companies have positioned their devices as gaming devices first and media devices second, Apple will work the other way around if they do eventually want to offer big-screen gaming. This means that any Apple console effort will remain dependent on the success of the Apple TV, which could easily evolve to support a solid gaming platform built on existing hardware. (Imagine multi-touch, mostly buttonless controllers that look like a handheld Magic Trackpad, complete with gyroscope.)

Dreams aside, Apple is already doing what many thought impossible: challenging Nintendo on the mobile gaming front. Apple doesn’t need to position their devices as gaming devices, because developers have already embraced them as such, even though they’re not really considered gaming devices as far as their primary functionality goes. Still, expect better games on iOS devices as the 8th generation console wars rage, but don’t expect to Apple to take this market on head-to-head just yet.

OnLive, the underdog hero.

While OnLive may not be able to compete in the motion-control arena, it’s a notable platform that deserves mention, even if it wasn’t on Maxator’s list. OnLive is a platform that bridges the gap between PC games and console games, and with it’s “console” client being offered for a mere $100, it already competes with the Big Three on graphical terms. They key to OnLive will be leveraging the success of big-name MMOs, which console gamers might want access to, but may not have the PC desktop power to play well. Since OnLive should be able to scale to play these titles as well as its current library (which is more console-centric), OnLive immediately establishes a niche market that’s still unrealized. The big question here is how fast OnLive can offer blockbuster titles compared to the Big Three, and how fast they can grow their infrastructure. Potentially, however, OnLive can challenge any of the Big Three as far as traditional console gaming goes, and could make hardware upgrades for PC gaming a thing of the past, too.

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We haven’t weighed in on Microsoft’s Kinect (formerly “Project Natal”) because we haven’t seen anything exciting about it yet. Maybe it’s better than Sony’s Move, and advancing what the Wii provided from a technological perspective. But let’s step back for a moment and look at where this all began, with Nintendo’s current console offering.

We picked up a Wii on release. We waited in line overnight, for crying out loud. And we did thoroughly enjoy the initial titles we played, but let’s be clear: they weren’t groundbreaking titles. Good titles with motion control, yes, but not groundbreaking titles in and of themselves. Maybe motion control is what made the Wii unique, and sold casual gaming to the masses, and maybe even pushed consoles into family entertainment centers where parents were previously skeptical of consoles as family-friendly entertainment. But as far as titles go, there’s no single Nintendo Wii game that’s more fun to play than any great title on any other console lacking motion control. (For example, the original Mario Kart was no less fun than the current Mario Kart is today.)

Yes, we’ll make a small exception for workout titles; EA Sports is a fantastic at-home workout for those without a gym who want to get into better cardiovascular shape, and traditional control schemes obviously wouldn’t work in this regard. But EA Sports, and games of this ilk, are not exactly fun gaming titles in the traditional sense.

So now with Kinect set to release late this year, we have another motion control scheme, albeit without a physical controller necessary. And this may work well for casual games, and probably pretty good for workout titles also (there will, after all, be an EA Sports title for Kinect). But for other gaming? If anything, Microsoft is looking to grab more Wii users and capitalize on the fact that a good chunk of gamers own both a Wii, and an XBox/PS3. Capturing the “casual” gaming crowd is an expected move for Microsoft, who has already moved in that direction during the XBox dashboard re-do (avatars, et al).

We’re highly skeptical that Kinect will bring anything worthwhile to the table if one already has a Wii sitting next to their XBox; Kinect is the Wii peripheral for the XBox. It’s a cool idea, but nothing more than a novelty, which conveniently comes out mid-way through the XBox 360 lifecycle. If anything, it combats Nintendo’s move of potentially releasing an HD Wii, forcing Nintendo to up their ante and delay a new product release more in line with Microsoft and Sony’s next generation, else simply throw in the towel like Sega did after the Dreamcast.

Either way, the Kinect alone won’t win Microsoft the battle here; the Kinect is a reactive move by Microsoft. Not in the way that the Move is Sony’s reaction to the Wii (which is playing catch-up more than anything else), but in the sense of allowing the XBox to be a competitor to the Wii on all angles – not just meeting the Wii’s capabilities, but arguably exceeding them without adding cumbersome, physical controllers. This move will likely pay off in keeping the 360 situated as the premiere US console, but probably won’t force Nintendo out of the console business entirely, unless Microsoft is able to capture some choice IP for Kinect-based games.

We just don’t see the Kinect doing much to sway the console wars one way or the other at this point. The Wii has already been widely adopted, and so the potential installation-base in Wii-less households appears very small. Unless there are some killer titles out there that make having Kinect outrageously desireable (and we haven’t seen any yet), why drop the money on Kinect?

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Reviewing the news coming out of E3 this week has shown itself to be a dreary affair. One, because we had a chance to attend the expo before other priorities revealed themselves (and thus didn’t), and two, because as the hoarse voice in our head mocks, “Perhaps you’re just not a gamer anymore.” And maybe we’re not – we’re certainly not console aficionados anymore, having shed the weight of the console wars many years ago. It was by chance that we again took up the console call with Microsoft’s enormous black boxen, and later again with the innovative Wii. But let’s be clear: our gaming time is a mere sliver compared to when we vapidly devoured every PC title worth playing, and the prospect of playing competitively as we did in Counterstrike years before is simply not realistic anymore. Indeed, we may even argue that our three-round battle with World of Warcraft was the end of our earnest gaming days, but perhaps this is an overstatement: time is simply one variable that affects our level of excitement for games these days, and in short, most new titles simply do little for us. One, because we’re now more interested in titles that don’t require massive time investments per session, and two, because the vast majority of titles remaining either aren’t particularly good or simply don’t titillate us.

Sure, there’s the occasional game of note that grabs our attention, like Fallout 3 or its DLC. There’s even a couple titles from E3 that peak our interest, be it Borderlands or Grindhouse. But most titles simply bore us, and we happen to attribute much of that boredom to the simple fact that we dislike, nay, loathe the typical console control scheme. Look, we’re PC gamers at heart (it’s why we took years to come back to consoles), and quite simply, there’s nothing better than a keyboard and mouse to control most games. Especially FPS titles. In fact, much as we loved Fallout 3, we purchased it for the 360, and the reliance on crappy console controls was our biggest complaint.

This hatred of typical console controls is why we had such high hopes for the Nintendo Revolution Wii. Yet sadly, as innovative as it was, the Wii proved to be little more than a novelty. Indeed, most games we’ve played on the Wii are either novelty titles (like Wii Sports) which wouldn’t occupy our long-term interest anyway, else titles that really didn’t benefit much from the Wii remotes in the first place. But rather than poo-poo all over the Wii yet again, let’s admit that Nintendo’s effort was good, even if the result (prior to Motion Plus, maybe) was marginal.

For those who love casual games, particularly the mini-games Nintendo titles are known for, the Wii certainly stands out from the 360 and PS3. And that’s why Nintendo has managed to survive this round of the console wars, and why it was inevitable that Microsoft and Sony would want a piece of the motion-control pie. So set out both companies did, and both revealed their Wii-killing accessories at E3. The PS3 did so with little fanfare, while Microsoft just made Natal a gamer household name.

For those asleep while E3 was going on, Natal isn’t a controller, it’s the lack of a controller. Natal’s hardware component is a camera that captures physical movements, such that 360 gamers don’t need to hold a controller to swing a sword, or punch, or jump, or do whatever. Natal, capable of facial recognition, will not only act as an interface to the 360, but to a whole slew of new games that will track user movement as an input mechanism. In theory (and from what E3 videos show us), Natal is just as sophisticated as the Wii in terms of motion control, and will likely compete well against Motion Plus equipped Wiis too. The question Microsoft and Sony have been asking is this: “If we can duplicate Wii functionality on a more powerful system, won’t we lure gamers away from the Wii?” And that’s a good question to ask, if it weren’t for the lead Nintendo already has in the motion control arena. While Sony is still vested in the original question, however, Microsoft made steps not just to duplicate Wii functionality, but to move well beyond it, making their original question moot.

It’s like this: every peripheral that intends to use Wii functionality will likely be built to interface with the Wii remote. If not, then the Wii remote still needs to be used in conjunction with the peripheral. For example, why does EA Sports Active use a resistance band instead of a dumbbell? Never mind the acute advantages of a resistance band for casual athletes over a heavier exercise device: a dumbbell would simply never work alongside the Wii remote and nunchuk. Only a resistance band will work since EA Sports Active is ultimately tied to the Wii’s controllers to function.

The same game on the 360 (which is indeed coming, BTW), with Natal as an input device, is far more flexible. (It will likely be cheaper, too, since the game won’t require a nunchuk pouch to be part of the package.) Indeed, EA Sports Active, with Natal, requires the user to hold no device at all, so they could just as easily use a resistance band as they could a dumbbell. In other words, the flexibility a workout game can have with Natal is hugely significant, as a Natal-equipped 360 with EA Sports Active could easily be used with a resistance band, dumbbells, a kettlebells, et al.

About the only disadvantage to Natal versus the Wii is what the camera can’t see, as would be the case if the Wii remote is used behind the player. And that’s a relatively unlikely scenario. There’s also the Wii’s added advantage of having buttons present on the Wii remote while the swinging happens, but Natal can still be used in conjunction with a controller, remote, or other peripheral, so it’s not like Natal’s making gamers give up button presses entirely. If anything, it solves more problems than it creates, and ultimately trumps both Nintendo’s and Sony’s motion control offerings. The trick for Microsoft will be in pricing Natal competitively, and that means cheaply, in order to keep a Natal-equipped 360 close in price to the Wii, and there’s obviously some difficulty in that. If Microsoft can work this formula out, however, there’s no reason they can’t succeed in luring the Wii faithful away from Nintendo’s current-gen icon.

For gamers like us, Natal presents an interesting new landscape. We can likely expect not only casual games that Wii gamers know and love, but since we’re talking the 360, more mature titles that use Natal as well. And that presents some nice possibilities, as we can easily visualize Natal control schemes for fighting games, FPS, etc, as long as there’s some basic method to control avatar movement. For melee-oriented games, Natal is a no-brainer in this regard, as a nunchuk-like accessory would be enough to compliment the Wii. Even FPS could work incredibly well with a nunchuk with trigger component. The next question is, without that component (and there’s no indication that one will exist at Natal launch), will Natal games be limited to too casual games? Right now, Natal offers a rather incredible control scheme with the potential to add motion control to games that the Wii simply can’t handle, effectively becoming what the Wii should have been at launch. But Microsoft could just as easily fail on this front, by either focusing too strongly on party games, or not pushing the possibilities for Natal-enabled mature titles to third-party developers. In other words, Microsoft needs to push the idea that Natal is core to the 360 experience, else it will become just another accessory soon to be forgotten by the general 360 user (think Power Pad, the PS2 camera, etc).

That hoarse voice in our head, it’s chiding us. And if Natal proves to be little more than another hardware console novelty, then maybe it’s right. But we’re pretty certain that Natal can recapture our love for console gaming by making motion control both fun and efficient as an input medium. If not, we’re taking our gaming hat and heading back to PC territory. Even if it’s only for a few minutes a week.

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A recent Gizmodo post caught our eye, in which Adam Frucci attempts to draw comparisons between the current generation consoles by price. Asserts Frucci, “the prices of all three consoles are incredibly close, and you can obviously fiddle with these configurations to change them.” And fiddle with Fucci’s ridiculous numbers we can, and should, because Frucci’s evaluation of the Wii is sadly mismanaged, because not only does he include an extra $80 for four Motion Plus add-ons that do nothing for the console right now because they’re not even available yet, but he, in turn, leaves the $90 cost of the XBox 360′s wi-fi adapter out of his baseline console pricing scheme. Is there any consistency to his madness?

Frucci may as well inflate the price of the Wii by another $80 because he left out the Wii Balance Board. Oh, and the price of component cables (even though they’re only 50 cents at Amazon). Come on, Frucci, pull your head out of your ass and realize that the cost of a console doesn’t include accessories that are currently unavailable, and, in fact, don’t have any games out which support them. That’s not to say that the Motion Plus won’t take off, but if they do, they may very well simply be incorporated into the Wii remote at a future date anyway. Why emphasize them in a console price comparison as though they are required for Wii gaming today? Should we also add to the XBox 360′s price because of the rumoured Wii-like remote that may ship for the 360 later this year?

If Frucci’s not a Wii-hater (and a 360 fan-boy to boot), we don’t know why he’d opt for the more expensive Wii controller charging station, instead of the $33 one also available at Amazon. And why does Frucci incorporate the price of a quad charging station for the PS3 and Wii, but only a dual charging station for the 360? By our estimates, Frucci’s Wii price should sit squarely at $457, while the prices for the PS3 and 360 are $557 and $604, respectively (wi-fi included). We even threw the PS3 and 360 a bone here by removing the price of two games, since Wii titles are not only $10 cheaper per title by Frucci’s estimates, but the Wii comes with a game, which, via Frucci’s numbers, means that the Wii is another $50 cheaper.

In other words, games aside, a Wii is approximately $100 cheaper than a PS3 and about $150 cheaper than a 360 assuming one needs four controllers and a charging station. And that doesn’t even consider the annual costs of XBox Live!, which accrues at least $40/year just for online multiplayer. So even with Frucci’s silly notion of including Motion Plus in this comparison, that’s only two years of multiplayer gaming on the 360, which we gather, most 360 owners have already paid for (aww, shucks).

Sadly, Frucci and Gizmodo haven’t done anything but add flames to the latest console war. It’s one thing to dispute the value of money spent on each console, but that’s subjective depending on who the user is. From a pure price stand-point, however, the Wii clearly wins, and even though we’re fond of the 360 as a heavyweight gaming machine, the truth is that it’s the most expensive system available, even compared to Sony’s monstrosity. That’s true even if we don’t include the 360′s wireless adapter, because Live! is disproportionately expensive considering that Sony and Nintendo offer their online services for free.

Why all the hullabaloo? Because in a highly subjective argument regarding the console wars, there’s still a capacity for objectivity, and price is one of those. One can expound upon the merits of any console to argue for its purchase, but that doesn’t resolve the ugly reality of real costs. A solo gamer looking to play online can pick up a Wii and get gaming for just over $250. Fact. That same gamer can’t get down and dirty with a PS3 or 360 without dropping about $100 more. Fact. Buying three additional controllers doesn’t make the Wii any less desirable from a pure price standpoint over its competition.

Let’s not argue value by obfuscating costs to try making a point, and stick with the truth, shall we? We’re looking at you, Frucci.

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Reggie Fils-Aime is not the man we want to see heading Nintendo’s North American chapter. That’s not to say that he’s totally off-base with his opinions and statements, but as VentureBeat’s recent interview of Films-Aimes illustrates, the man comes across as far too defensive of Nintendo, even for a President. Maybe that’s because Nintendo should be defensive given the onslaught of Microsoft and Sony, for despite the Wii’s propensity for flying off shelves, the library of “must-have” Wii titles is fairly low compared to what’s offered by Nintendo’s competitors. Really, how long can the Wii endure with only a couple novelty titles? Isn’t it true that the average 360 or PS3 owner buys more titles than the average Wii owner?

We’ve long said that Nintendo needs a leader who’s not only willing to cater to a new generation of young gamers, but also to the original Nintendo generation, who is now grown up and wants more mature, engrossing titles. But Nintendo neglects this latter segment in much the same way George Lucas turned away from the original Star Wars geeks, giving fans a watered-down set of prequels with little weight and too much CGI. Fils-Aime, similarly, doesn’t quite grasp the desires of the old-school fanbase, but perhaps that’s to be expected from a man who marks the SNES days as the origin for his love of Zelda. It’s not as though the man was wearing diapers when the first two Zelda titles were released on the original Nintendo Entertainment System (NES), so what gives?

The disconnect at Nintendo doesn’t end in its North American headquarters, however. Rather, its infected the very roots of Nintendo’s core, which is why the Wii is such a paradox: for a company that stressed so many times that it’s in the business of making games, not media centers, it’s definitely odd that the Wii sets itself apart from the 360 by offering a free-to-download web browser. There are even third-party keyboard peripherals available at mainstream game shops. Where’s the gaming nexus here? It would be one thing if Nintendo wanted to firmly leverage Flash for developing small, casual games played through their Opera-powered browser, but that’s not what Nintendo’s done. Nor have they extended the ability of third-party keyboard peripherals to be used as game controllers, so as to mimic the experience PC gamers have in many titles.

And while Nintendo can access YouTube and other video sites, they missed the ball on NetFlix integration. Because they’re a stout gaming company and not willing to promote non-gaming activities? Then explain the weather, picture, and voting channels on the Wii, which clearly promulgate non-gaming activities. Nintendo’s actions are clearly going one way, while their “100%-gaming” philosophy says something else entirely. But that’s okay in one sense, because we’re no longer fighting against the PC stereotype that Microsoft so ardently opposed when they first pushed the XBox into consumer’s hands. Nowadays, we expect our consoles to do more than play off-the-shelf video game titles. What Nintendo, and to a degree, Microsoft and Sony need to firmly embrace, however, is this “totality” philosophy, instead of half-assing their media center initiatives. After all, what the Wii lacks in computational power, it can make up elsewhere, and offering channels that leverage more than just games is exactly what Nintendo needs to do.

As with the iPhone, maybe a number of features weren’t available upon initial release. What was important, however, is that the framework was intact, such that the platform could evolve over time. The Wii already has a polished, simple interface, which is far more user-friendly than the interfaces of the 360 or PS3. And the channel system, if innovated upon properly, can easily seed Wii owners with online video streaming, magazines, and music – all areas that Nintendo’s competitors have not fully explored. The difference is that if every console manufacturer suddenly invested in these areas, the Wii’s simplicity, and price, would immediately gives it a market boost, for the same reasons that it couldn’t stay on shelves for the first year it was available.

Back to Fils-Aime and his silliness:

We don’t believe used games are in the best interest of the consumer. We have products that consumers want to hold onto. They want to play all of the levels of a Zelda game and unlock all of the levels. A game like Personal Trainer Cooking has a long life. We believe used games aren’t in the consumer’s best interest.

The topic of used games is relevant to the recession, and arguably anyone with frugality in mind. Fact is, replayability is not a huge feature in most games, and its natural for people to exchange their gaming assets in the same way they shuffle other forms of media. The Zelda titles, for instance, don’t offer much to a gamer once every level has been played and unlocked – like most every other game on the market. Even games with more replayability, like, say, Fallout 3, will ultimately be consumed of its content by an eager gamer. Rather than complain about the second-hand gaming market, what Nintendo should be doing is developing games with non-liner gameplay, and perhaps focusing on a digital distribution model that would make buying games easier for customers, with the added bonus of combating physical game exchanges. The reality is that despite Fils-Aime’s ridiculous opinion, used games are absolutely in the consumer’s best interest, because in most cases, they get the same experience as buying a game new, but at a cheaper financial cost. Fils-Aime’s quasi-defense?

Describe another form of entertainment that has a vibrant used goods market. Used books have never taken off. You don’t see businesses selling used music CDs or used DVDs. Why? The consumer likes having a brand-new experience and reliving it over and over again. If you create the right type of experience, that also happens in video games.

Perhaps in Nintendo’s white towers, there is unlimited money to throw around, and bags-of-holding that make storage inconsequential, but in the real world, people really do buy used goods. Come on, Reggie, Powells isn’t that far from Seattle (you have a Nintendo-plane, don’tcha?), and there are undoubtedly many a used-book shops in downtown Seattle, too. San Francisco’s Amoeba Music is an obvious testament to the popularity of used music/movies, and again, there are plenty of lesser known stores that cater to similar crowds. And most importantly, the user’s experience is not diminished by these supply chains, because when they get home and pop their media into the appropriate player, the experience is still new to them.

In other words, Fils-Aime is plain wrong. Combating the used games market is not only ignoring revenue streams that are as-yet untapped by the console industry, but it’s also ignoring (and thus under-utilizing) the strengths of the Wii. And that’s rather unfortunate, because on one hand, Nintendo’s a great innovator of products, which is why we bought the Wii the first place. On the other hand, Nintendo is being short-sighted with the Wii, and that’s resulted in a poor game library that’s made us not want to hold onto our Wii. In fact, if it weren’t for the Wii’s homebrew scene, we wouldn’t have hooked it back up to our television after a recent move, and that’s something Nintendo, and others, needs to take note of – if homebrew is keeping buyer’s attentions, then what does the company need to do to incorporate the offerings of homebrew developers into the product?

Right now, the Wii’s growth, even its entire legacy, is wrapped up in how it will leverage its software. Gimmicks like the Wii Fit will only go so far, because they’re expressly limited by their accompanying software programs. If Nintendo wakes up and starts asking the NES faithful what they want in a system, and not just the kids of the NES faithful, then Nintendo’s stake in the console wars will be well-earned. Cooking Mama in the living room, a cooking application in the kitchen, and ubiquity that future generations will grow up with. It’s the dream Microsoft has been shooting for for years, but it’s within reach of Nintendo right now.

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We still don’t quite understand what Sony was thinking when they stopped manufacturing the 60GB PS3. Those blind to PS3 on-goings may have missed the fact that the 60GB PS3 was the flagship PS3 that included four USB ports, slots for a variety of memory card formats, and most importantly, complete backwards compatibility with the PS2. Later models of the PS3 dropped hardware PS2 compatibility by emulating the PS2 via software, and ultimately, dropping backwards compatibility entirely. Comments from various Sony fanboys we talked to responded to this move with quotes akin to, “That’s because Sony wants to emphasize their PS3 lineup, which has better games. Who wants to play old games anyway?”

Those kind of comments are interesting because it wasn’t long ago that Sony launched the PS2, touting, “Why would you buy an XBox when you can get a PS2 and have access to the whole Playstation library?” In other words, backwards compatibility was referred to as a “must-have” feature, and access to games from legacy systems is a trend today as well as yesterday, which is why one of the Wii’s key features is their Virtual Console, and why the 360 continues to support XBox games, despite the software emulation.

Sony’s sale of only one PS3 model these days is further interesting because they don’t advertise the lack of backwards compatibility, despite that their user-base is now accustomed to this kind of feature. When a PS2 owner now decides to buy a PS3, they’re being blind-sighted by the lack of backwards compatibility, since there’s no mention of this feature having been removed on the box of the 60GB model.

Then there’s the apparent lack of regard to users of other legacy hardware, as we recently realized when we convinced Bones WIley to pick up a copy of Rock Band last week. After unpacking the instruments and setting everything up, we quickly realized that there weren’t enough ports on the 60GB PS3 to plug everything in, since Sony decided to cut the number of available USB ports in half to two. This makes Rock Band on the “new” PS3 $25 more expensive for most gamers, since the Rock Band hub is required to plug everything in.

Off and running again, we had a blast playing Rock Band, and decided we’d pick up a second guitar, along with Guitar Hero III, so we could jam on the bass while Bones played lead. Then we found out that Rock Band guitars can’t be use in the Guitar Hero games, and vice versa, making this kind of purchase moot. Yet, Guitar Hero instruments on the 360 can be used with Rock Band without problem, making Rock Band yet again more expensive for PS3 owners assuming they already have Guitar Hero instruments.

It’s almost as if a PS3 purchase these days not only gets one a sub-par system with arguably the worst gaming library of the current-generation platforms, but the PS3 also rewards owners with a wallet-raping time and time again. We’re not sure how Sony managed to screw things up this badly, but even if we hadn’t been opposed to a future Sony console purchase before, now we’re definitely set to avoid Sony products like the plague.

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